1. Kansas City (13-4)
Andy Reid is 91-37 since coming to Kansas City. In the last 5 years the Chiefs have won 12 or more games 4 out of 5 times. In the NFL there is no more consistent team right now than the Kansas City. There’s even rumblings that they might go undefeated this year. I’m not one of those people. Obviously, they’ll make the playoffs and win this division. There’s just not another team that can knock them off. Chargers might be there next year but not this year. The good news for the rest of the league is that their offensive line has gone through a transformation and will have some growing pains. Obviously with Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill they’ll be fine. Defensively they finished middle of the pack and they didn’t do enough in the offseason to change that. In my opinion. I think they’ve gotten used to relying on their offense and it’s going to backfire slightly this year. They’ll still win the division and make the playoffs but I think they’ll have a tougher time getting through the AFC with other teams being more balanced.
2. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
One of the teams I have making the playoffs that didn’t last year is the Chargers. This isn’t because of their new head coach. I think Staley was quite an interesting hire. No head coaching experience and he’s bounced around as a coordinator the last couple years. From 2017-2020 he coached linebackers on Chicago and Denver, and was defensive coordinator for the Rams. The experience at all those places in a short time will be beneficial but it’s odd he hasn’t stayed anywhere. He’s also under 40. It could work out but I’m not so sure. The reason why I like this team is they’re loaded on paper. Herbert proved he was a franchise QB right off the bat and this year will be his coming out party. Allen is one of the best route runners in the league and I expect that connection to thrive. Also, Ekeler coming back fully healthy will be a big boost in the backfield. They also added Jared Cook at tight end. This was the 9th ranked offense and could crack the top 5. On the other side they still have the Bosa monster and the 10th ranked defense. They’ll have to keep teams out of the endzone more but they’ll be good. This is one of the more complete teams in the NFL but they’ll have to grow up fast to be more than just a playoff team.
3. Las Vegas (8-9)
When you look at Jon Gruden’s career, this prediction is pretty much what you’d expect. He’s 114-110 in his lifetime. Those aren’t exactly numbers that scream Hall of Fame coach. Pretty mediocre. Just like last year where the Raiders went 8-8. As you can see by my prediction I expect much of the same. This team is capable of beating good team as shown in their road win against the Chiefs last year. They were also able to win at Cleveland as well. So it’s not like they aren’t good enough but they just aren’t consistent enough. Or to put it better, they’re too consistent at being average. To be fair, the offense finished 8th in yardage and 10th in scoring. It wasn’t Carr that was the problem. The problem was the defense that gave up nearly 30 points a game. That’s why they used 5 of their 7 picks on defense and 3 on safeties. They also added Joseph, Ngakoue, and Jefferson through free agency. They’re trying to make the defense but I’m not so sure it will propel them into the playoffs. I think Gruden is a mediocre coach and he’ll have a mediocre season.
4. Denver (6-11)
I’ll admit that I made this prediction before Bridgewater was named starter. That being said, I don’t think their record will be much different. I do think they could easily outperform this prediction but they’re in a division that they’re the worst team without a doubt. Even with the upgrade at QB with Bridgwater, there’s still a lot of room to make up. Vic Fangio is 12-20 so far and they only mustered up 5 wins last year. They get Sutton back healthy this year and add Fuller and Darby to the defensive side. Offensively and defensively they should be better this year but how much? They were the 28th ranked scoring offense and the 25th scoring defense. They have a lot of work to do and even though I like Bridgwater I don’t know if he’s talented enough to make up for those numbers. They’ll be better but not good enough.