1. Tennessee (11-6)
Tennessee was a game away from the Superbowl the season before and won this division last year. Mike Vrabel is 29-19 since taking over. This prediction is on par with their record last year (11-5). The biggest offseason acquisition was Julio Jones. He provides a dangerous 1+2 punch with Brown. Add in Derrick Henry in the backfield and this offense is going to cause some matchup nightmares. They also locked up Tannehill and Henry long term. Last year this was the #2 offense in the league and I expect that to continue. The defense was not as good which is surprising with Vrabel. They finished almost last in the NFL at 28 in yardage. They lose Butler, Jackson, and Clowney from that defense. They did add Dupree and Jenkins which should help but this defense has a way to go. Luckily, the offense will be pretty good and will overcompensate. The Titans will win this division. With only the Colts really competing against them it shouldn’t be that hard.
2. Indianapolis (7-10)
This may be a bit of an overreaction to swapping Rivers for Wentz and the fact Wentz already got banged up in camp. The Colts have found a way to win regardless of their QB situation. Frank Reich has gone 28-20 in 3 years and made the playoffs 2 of the 3. Having them missing the playoffs this year seems a little pessimistic. My issue with this team is not so much the actual team but their schedule. They get some easy ones in their division against Houston and the Jags but the start of their year is BRUTAL. Home to Seattle, home to Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, and at Baltimore. That’s a gauntlet and there’s a chance they could lose all 5 of those games. And they still have to travel to Buffalo, San Fran , at Arizona, and they get Tampa at home. That’s a lot of tough games. The defense will be good again and will finish top 10 but this offense is going to struggle. They’ll be able to run the ball but the passing game will be suspect. They might not have a losing record but they’ll be right around .500 and nowhere near their 11-5 2020 record.
3. Houston (2-15)
With Watson dealing with legal trouble and Houston turning to Tyrod, Houston will be vying for the #1 overall pick. It’s not that I don’t like Tyrod but he’s just not the guy to get this team where it needs to be. In Buffalo he had a little more around him. This Houston team is lacking in a lot of areas. They only won 4 games last year with Watson under center. There was also a ton of player movement in the off season. Probably the most by any team. It’s hard to tell if the change is positive or negative but they did lose Watts and Fuller, 2 of their best players. With all the player turnover and the aging QB under center I don’t have a good outlook on the season. This was the 30th ranked defense last year and the 13th ranked offense. Without Watson the offense should be worse and I don’t see how the defense gets better. It’s going to be a long year for Texans fans.
4. Jacksonville (2-15)
The Urban Meyer, Trevor Lawrence era is officially underway. Let me start by saying I like Lawrence and I think he was the only NFL ready QB in the draft. After trading Minshew Jags are all in on him. I think that’s a good idea. He is a franchise QB but it’s going to be a rough rookie year. Much like Wilson on the Jets, Lawrence is in a no win situation. The Jags just aren’t a very good team as evidence of their 1-15 record last year. This is a complete rebuild at this point and you’re bringing in a guy who’s only coached in College. Granted, he’s probably one of the best College coaches ever but this is the NFL. Between the player turnover, new coach, and rookie QB this team is in for a long season. Oh, and did I mention they lost their other 1st round pick Etienne to injury? Meyer may be the answer eventually but not this year. They should be more exciting than last year though.