1. Buffalo Bills (15-2)
No surprise here after the season they had last year and the rest of the division. Buffalo gets back almost their entire offense and defense and just locked up their franchise QB for 6 years. A QB that could very well win the MVP this year. Allen threw for 4544 and 37 TDs while also rushing for 421 and another 8. He’s gotten better every year and I don’t expect this year to be any different. They exchanged Brown for Sanders and added Kumerow at receiver and Breida in the backfield. Line is solid but tight end may be an issue. It remains to be seen if Dawson Knox is the guy. It didn’t matte much last year since they finished 2nd in total offense in the NFL but imagine if he does blow up? Defensively they were about middle of the pack in the NFL. They spent their first 2 draft picks on the defensive line hoping to create a better pass rush. If they do accomplish that this defense will be dangerous. They already have one of the best defensive backfields and linebacker combos in the league. If the line gets there watch out. 15-2 may be a little bit of a homer prediction but consider they were 13-3 last year and lost one of those games by a Hailmary. And the other 2 were to KC and Tennessee. This is going to be a tough team to beat and I don’t see it happening a lot this year.
2. Miami Dolphins (9-8)
Tua or not Tua, that is the question. Half the league thinks Tua is not the answer and the other half thinks he is. Fitzpatrick is gone and I don’t see a Watson trade in the future so it’s Tua or bust. He was only a rookie last year and did do pretty well considering. Personally, I don’t think he is a franchise QB but he’s definitely getting undeserved slander. He threw for 11 TDs to 5 INTs. He was splitting time but it’s clear he protects the ball. Problem is this offense wasn’t very scary. They finished 20th overall and 26th in 3rd down %. Not a good recipe for success. The defense faired slightly better. They finished #1 in interceptions as well as 5th in scoring. They did give up over 367 a game but they kept people out of the endzone and kept the Dolphins in games. They were 10-6 last year but I expect a step back. Tua is going to struggle some in his first full year as a starter. Still will the growing pains they’ll break .500.
3. New England Patriots (8-9)
The Cam experiment has been flipped on its head and it’s now the Mac experience. Jones takes over one of the storied franchises as a rookie and another AFC East team is putting all their faith in an Alabama quarterback. The Patriots were one of the busiest teams in free agency.So many that it’s too much to list. A couple notable ones were Judon, Jonnu Smith, Van Noy, and Hunter Henry. You can see they’re trying to build the 2 tight end situation they used to have. Henry and Smith are very capable but I don’t think they are quite Gronk and Hernandez level. Problem is their starting receivers are going to be Algholar and Kendrick Bourne. That may be the worst 1+2 in the league. Add in the fact you have a rookie under center and the passing game is going to be short easy completions or nothing. You could rely on the run game but you traded Michel and you’re relying on Harris who got banged up last year. They still have James White who I think they’ll utilize a ton out of the backfield but I see this offense struggling. The Defense will be good and keep them in games but they won’t be good enough to make the playoffs. Mac Jones isn’t ready to lead a playoff team just yet.
4. New York Jets (3-14)
What can you say about the Jets? They’re a bad team. I do love the Head coach hire, Robert Saleh but this team has a long way to go. They may have gotten their first piece of the puzzle with QB Zach Wilson. In preseason he showed he has the arm talent to compete in the NFL. I’m still a little down on him because I don’t know if he’s talented enough to be a franchise QB. He definitely has the arm but how often do BYU QBs succeed in the NFL? I’m also concerned that he’s stepping into a no win situation and could hinder his progression. Look at how fast Burrow was knocked out of the season last year. Jets have a lot of issues that need to be fixed fast. I like the addition of Corey Davis and I think he’ll be their leading receiver but their core as whole isn’t very good. Running backs aren’t much but they did add injury prone Tevin Coleman to the mix. Overall, this offense is in trouble. I expect the defense to be in much better shape since after all, Saleh is a defensive coach. They also used their last 6 picks on defense and added Lawson and Davis in free agency. They were 2-14 last year and I expect a similar result this year.